How Europe Can End Its US Defense Dependence by 2030

Study highlights viable pathways and financial feasibility How Europe Can Break Free from its Defence Dependence on the United States

2026-05-08 From Detlev Karg 2 min Reading Time

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A five-member German expert group from industry, academia and politics considers far-reaching European defence autonomy to be both technologically feasible and financially viable. The experts outlined the prospects and opportunities in a paper that has now been published by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy.

Many systems, many programmes, high costs: “Sparta 2.0” outlines possible solutions.(Picture: AI-generated) — Many systems, many programmes, high costs: “Sparta 2.0” outlines possible solutions.
(Picture: AI-generated)

In their study entitled “Sparta 2.0”, Europe could shed its military dependence on the United States within just a few years and without additional costs. According to economist Moritz Schularick from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) and his co-authors, what is primarily required is the political will to overcome the long-standing fragmentation of European defence policy.

Standardisation instead of fragmentation urged

The authors cite a classic example of this fragmentation: “Europe operates 14 different types of main battle tank, 15 different fighter aircraft and a range of incompatible command systems. According to a study by the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, this fragmentation destroys economies of scale: Europe achieves 30 to 40 per cent fewer capabilities per euro invested than a consolidated state.” By contrast, the United States operates a single main battle tank type. According to a recently published study by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, the United States spent more than $900 billion on its armed forces in 2025, while Europe spent just over $500 billion. China ranked third with around $300 billion in military expenditure. This analysis broadly corresponds with calculations by the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Study says financing is feasible over the coming years

The president of the Kiel Institute for the World Economy and his co-authors estimate the costs at between €150 billion and €200 billion by 2030, rising to a total of around €500 billion by the middle of the next decade. “This agenda can be implemented within the framework of current financial planning if one third of the planned increase in European defence budgets - amounting to €200 billion annually - is invested accordingly,” the authors state. In the paper, “Europe” refers to the European Union plus the United Kingdom and Norway. Relative to Europe’s economic output, this would correspond to around 0.25 per cent of gross domestic product.

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Date: 08.12.2025

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