Mediation mission failed No Future for FCAS?

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Launched as the “air combat system of the future”, the Franco‑German FCAS project now appears to be on the brink of collapse. A leadership dispute between the defence firms Dassault and Airbus, together with divergent requirements for a next‑generation fighter, have made the ambitious €100‑billion programme increasingly unlikely to succeed. 

FCAS stands for Future Combat Air System. The concept was to include drones and novel communications systems as part of a future air combat ecosystem. It was planned as the backbone of Franco‑German air defence from the 2040s onwards. A stealth‑equipped manned fighter was intended to replace the Eurofighter Typhoon in the German Air Force and the Rafale in the French Air Force in the long term. The fighter would have been supported by drones linked together in a data cloud.

Project milestones so far

France’s President Emmanuel Macron and then‑Chancellor Angela Merkel (CDU) launched the project at a Franco‑German ministerial council in 2017. Two years later Spain announced its participation. Since 2023 Belgium has held a kind of observer status.

The second phase was due to begin in 2026, with a flyable demonstrator to be developed by 2029. However, the companies involved have long been at odds over responsibilities and leadership claims.

Dassault insists on control

Under the current agreements, France, Germany and Spain were each to fund one third of FCAS development. In France Dassault Aviation would lead, in Germany Airbus and in Spain Indra.

Dassault chief Éric Trappier insists his company should take a leadership role in FCAS and receive a substantially larger share of the development work. He points to his firm’s experience in building combat aircraft — expertise Airbus, as a civil aircraft manufacturer, does not possess. Granting Dassault a greater role would upset the previously negotiated distribution of tasks.

Divergent requirements for a modern fighter

The French Air Force has different requirements from the German Air Force. French jets are expected to operate from aircraft carriers and be capable of delivering nuclear weapons, whereas the German Air Force requires a fast air superiority fighter. It is therefore increasingly likely that Germany and France will each develop their own fighter derived from a common platform. Defence politicians view this as militarily sensible.

Where does the German government stand?

Chancellor Friedrich Merz (CDU) for some time insisted on the original arrangements with France and Spain. In February, however, he publicly questioned the project for the first time, citing the differing requirements for a modern combat aircraft. He said Paris wanted to build a machine tailored solely to its own needs. “If we cannot resolve this, then we cannot sustain the project,” Merz said.

What is Macron’s position?

Following Merz’s comments, the French president declared he remained “committed to FCAS’s success”. “Given the strategic challenges for our Europe, it would be incomprehensible if industrial differences could not be overcome,” Macron stressed. Yet he has also not ruled out the possibility that the project could fail.

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What did the mediation mission achieve?

In the dispute over leadership of FCAS, the governments in Berlin and Paris at the end of March tasked two defence executives with one last attempt to broker a solution. No official results have yet been published.

According to Handelsblatt, the French side warned of a potential victory by the Rassemblement National in next year’s presidential election. The French right‑wing populists have said they would end cooperative defence programmes if they come to power. France also reportedly threatened again to abandon the joint tank project MGCS should FCAS not continue.

Volker Mayer‑Lay (CDU), the Bundestag rapporteur for the Air Force from the ruling coalition, told AFP that “with the mediation now coming to an end, all options have been exhausted.” If mediation produces no viable result, “FCAS in its present configuration has failed,” he said.

What alternatives exist?

Industry sources say Airbus is willing to develop a national fighter. It is also conceivable that Germany could join forces with Sweden to develop such an aircraft.

Meanwhile the UK, Italy and Japan are pursuing their own stealth fighter under the Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP) or the Tempest banner, intended to replace Japan’s F‑2 fighters and the British and Italian Typhoons. Germany could join that project; however, since it is already well advanced, it is unclear how much influence Germany could still exert.